Rate Lock Advisory

Wednesday, July 18th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened flat despite favorable results from this morning’s only economic data. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow up 28 points and the Nasdaq down 19 points. The bond market is currently down 1/32 (2.86%), which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates at yesterday’s levels.

1/32


Bonds


30 yr - 2.86%

28


Dow


25,148

19


NASDAQ


7,835

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Low


Positive


Housing Starts (New Residential Construction)

June’s Housing Starts was posted at 8:30 AM ET this morning, revealing a 12.3% decline in new home groundbreakings. This was a much larger decline than analysts were expecting and dropped starts to their lowest level since last September. This is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates because it indicates weakness in the new home portion of the housing sector. However, new homes make up only a small part of the overall housing sector, preventing this data from carrying much importance. The variance from forecasts in today’s release should have been enough to cause a reaction in rates, but we just aren’t seeing it yet.

Low


Neutral


Fed Talk

We have day two of Fed Chairman Powell’s congressional testimony taking place, speaking before the House Financial Services Committee. However, the second day of this proceeding rarely brings any surprises, so we shouldn’t expect a market reaction that will affect mortgage rates.

Medium


Unknown


Fed Beige Book

Later today, the Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book report at 2:00 PM ET. This report is named simply after the color of its cover, but it is considered to be important to the Fed when determining monetary policy during their FOMC meetings. It details economic activity and conditions by Fed region throughout the U.S. If there are any significant changes in conditions since the last update, we could see afternoon moves in the markets and mortgage rates. Signs of weakness should translate into bond strength and better mortgage rates.

Low


Unknown


Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board

Tomorrow morning has two pieces of data being posted, starting with weekly unemployment claims at 8:30 AM. The final economic report of the week will be June's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow morning. This Conference Board index attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. While it is not a factual report, it still is considered to be of moderate importance to the bond market. It is expected to show a 0.4% increase, meaning it is predicting gains in economic growth over the next few months. A decline in the index would be good news for the bond and mortgage markets.

Medium


Unknown


Corporate Earnings

We will also be watching corporate earnings as their postings get more plentiful and mortgage important. Alcoa is expected to post their results after the market closes today. Therefore, it will have an impact on overnight and early morning trading tomorrow. This company isn't necessarily key to gauging economic strength, but it is the first Dow component that posts earnings each quarter. Since it is the first look into Dow-related earnings, it draws plenty of attention in the markets. There are also plenty of other earnings releases that will be in the spotlight. Generally speaking, weaker corporate earnings translates into stock selling that makes bonds more attractive to investors. As bond buying pushes prices higher, yields fall and mortgage rates usually track bond yields.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.